Lasse Penttinen
14 Aug 2002 8:04
According to this study the pay services will come eventually and grab a market share, but I really have to wonder why the reaction time of the music industry is so slow?
Digital distribution of music through services such as Morpheus and Kazaa will continue to thrive, with use peaking in 2005, according to a report released Wednesday.
The Yankee Group predicts 7.44 billion unlicensed audio files will be swapped in 2005 among consumers aged 14 and older, up from 5.16 billion in 2001.
After 2005, however, Yankee predicts free music swapping will begin to decline. Yankee projects 6.33 billion unlicensed audio files will be swapped in 2006.
If Yankee's projections are right, it could be bad news for the recording industry, which has been launching its own pay services and working to thwart unlicensed music swapping. The entertainment industry is also pondering legal moves against individuals.
According to the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA), Internet piracy of music has shaved 5 percent from music sales in both 2001 and 2000. Although the declines can be attributed to other reasons, Yankee said, unlicensed music swapping is "certainly a significant contributing factor."
In a separate report, Forrester Research disputed the RIAA's claims and, like Yankee, noted the music industry must make it easier for people to find, copy and pay for music over the Internet.
Forrester also concluded that pay services will likely take off in about 2005, with digital music delivery accounting for 17 percent of sales in 2007.
News.com